🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still